Who's Going Home?

Even though I'm still reeling from last night's very disappointing performances, it's time to turn my thoughts to who is going to join in the illustrious company of EJ Day, Vanessa Olivarez, Leah Labelle, Lindsay Cardinale, and Melissa McGhee by becoming the first contestant voted out of this year's Finals. With so many contestants and so many rocky performances, I think the best way to make a prediction as to who is going to get kicked off tonight is by process of elimination -- figure out who is most likely to be safe, and go from there. As such, I've identified three zones: Green (safe), Yellow (not on solid ground), and Red (danger danger danger!) Here goes...

Click here to read my Top 12 Performances Recap.

Green Zone: Safe
Lakisha "Kiki" Jones and Melinda Doolittle are about as safe this week as they could possibly be, as both gave great performances that were head and shoulders above the rest of the field, and both have huge fan bases that won't let them down this early in the competition. Jordin Sparks was this week's recipient of the "pimp" spot (the last performance slot) and received raves from the judges, so she should most assuredly live to see another week. I'm also going to add Blake Lewis and Chris Richardson into this category...although neither was at their best last night, I think they have a solid enough group of fans at this point that they shouldn't be too concerned.

Yellow Zone: Not on solid ground
Chris Sligh got hammered by the judges after turning "Endless Love" into Coldplay-lite and Gina Glocksen rocked herself right into the ground on "Lovechild," but I'm guessing both of these contestants earned enough goodwill in the semifinals that they should avoid elimination this week (although I wouldn't be shocked if either of them slipped into the Bottom 3). Phil Stacey did better than he has done the last few weeks, so I imagine he'll pick up enough votes to hang around a bit longer. I'm also, much to my chagrin, going to have to put Sanjaya Malakar in this category...even though he was definitively the worst (which says a lot on a night that featured predominantly bad performances), if John Stevens or Kevin Covais is any indication, he won't be standing anywhere near center stage this evening.

Red Zone: Danger! Danger! Danger!
Brandon Rogers. Stephanie Edwards. Haley Scarnato. Each was on slightly shaky grounds coming into the Finals. All three forgot their words. None gave inspiring performances. Therefore, I'm guessing Brandon, Stephanie, and Haley will make up this week's Bottom 3.

Here's where it gets really difficult...which one is going to go?

I went to sleep last night thinking Stephanie was a goner...my thought process was that even though Brandon and Haley forgot their words, they did so in such an obvious way that it might actually earn them a few sympathy votes (especially Haley, who turned into a total mess as she listened to the judges' comments and then thanked them profusely for finally saying something even remotely kind).

Then I started thinking it was Brandon who was going to go...that one-spot (first performance slot) has killed much better singers than Brandon.

But when it comes down to it, I'm gonna have to go with Haley as the first eliminated contestant this season. She just doesn't have the goods to compete with the other girls, and despite McPheever-ing herself out last night, I think she's out of her depth in this competition.

So there it is...Haley's gonna go.

Gulp.