Who's Going Home?

Even though last night's performances were head and shoulders better than the performances from the Top 12, someone has still gotta go. It's now time to try to figure out who will join in the illustrious company of former 11th place finishers Charles Grigsby, Matt Rogers, Mikalah Gordon, and Kevin Covais.

As I did last week, I think the best way to make a prediction as to who is going to get kicked off tonight is by process of elimination -- figure out who is most likely to be safe, and go from there (although some good it did me last week -- I predicted Haley would go!) Well, if at first you don't succeed...

I've identified three zones: Green (safe), Yellow (not on solid ground), and Red (danger danger danger!) Here goes...

Click here to read my Top 11 Performances Recap.

Green Zone: Safe
Once again Melinda and LaKisha have absolutely nothing to worry about -- both were excellent last night and both have huge fanbases, so neither lady is going anywhere anytime soon. Jordin Sparks was spectacular as well, and I think she is gaining fans and momentum by the week, so she, too, is safe-as-safe-can-be. Blake Lewis also has nothing to worry about -- his soulful, sexy performance last night should definitely earn him a spot on next week's show.

Yellow Zone: Not on solid ground
Neither Chris Sligh or Chris Richardson gave their best performance of the competition, and both were a bit overpraised by the judges, but both were solid enough, I believe, to keep them out of danger this week. If either slips down into the Bottom 3 I will not be shocked, but I expect both Chris' will end up on the Season 6 AI Tour.

Next up: last week's Bottom 2 and 3 finishers, Sanjaya Malakar and Phil Stacey. In three of the last four seasons the 11th place finisher was not in the Bottom 3 during the Top 12 (the lone exception being Mikalah, who was Bottom 2 in the Top 12 and eliminated the following week). What does this mean for Sanjaya and Phil?

As much as it kills me to say it, I'm thinking the sheer bizarre-ness of Sanjaya's performance, in addition to the watercooler-worthiness of the Sanjaya/weeping child moment, is going to be enough to spare him another week. He may find himself in the Bottom 3 again, but I don't think he's going home.

I also don't think Phil is going anywhere -- while I didn't love his performance, I'm thinking his fans know that he's in trouble, and they dialed their little fingers off in support of him last night. He, too, could make a return trip to the Bottom 3, but I'd be very surprised if he isn't back next week.

Red Zone: Danger! Danger! Danger!
That leaves us with Haley Scarnato, Gina Glocksen, and Stephanie Edwards -- in my opinion the likeliest candidates for the Bottom 3 slots tonight.

So who's gonna go?

While the one-spot killed Brandon Rogers last week, I'm guessing Haley's legs will be enough to help her avoid the same fate.

And while Gina's rendition of "Paint it Black" was slightly, as Simon said, "torturous," I'm thinking the extended conversation with the judges after her performance will earn her enough votes to stick around another week.

Which brings us to Stephanie. Beautiful Stephanie, who dresses better than anyone else in the competition, but just can't find a way to really bring her personality to the forefront and endear herself to the viewers. It will be a shame to lose her so early, but I think she's going to be the one to go.

So there it is...Stephanie's gettin' the boot.

Gulp.