Top 10: Who's Going Home Tonight?

Yes, it's time once again to try and figure out who will be going home tonight, joining the illustrious company of former 10th place finishers EJ Day, Julia Damato, Amy Adams, Jessica Sierra, and Lisa Tucker.

As I have done the last two weeks, I think the best way to make a prediction as to who is going to get kicked off tonight is by process of elimination -- figure out who is most likely to be safe, and go from there. Right now my track record is 1-for-2 -- I correctly predicted Stephanie's ouster last week, but I thought Haley would get the boot in the Top 12. Hopefully this week I'll rise above the .500 mark.

I've identified three zones: Green (safe), Yellow (not on solid ground), and Red (danger danger danger!) Here goes...

Click here to read my Top 10 Performances Recap.

Green Zone: Safe
Even though I thought they both made snooze-inducing song choices, once again Melinda and LaKisha have absolutely nothing to worry about tonight -- both were spot-on vocally, and there is no reason to think either lady's fanbase will abandon her this early in the season. For the third week in a row I'm also going to put Blake Lewis into this category -- his soulful, sexy performance, even without beatboxing (or spiky hair), should definitely earn him a spot in the Top 9. I'm also not too worried about Chris Richardson -- his fans know he was in trouble last week, so they most likely took to the phones in droves last night to save their boy.

Yellow Zone: Not on solid ground
In my article Who is in Danger This Week, I identified Gina Glocksen and Phil Stacey as two of the contestants who should be feeling butterflies in their stomach. However, I think that they both did enough last night to buy themselves some more time in the competition -- especially Gina, who, in my opinion, was the best of the night. It is possible Phil could slip into the Bottom 3, but I don't see a 10th place elimination in his future.

While I assumed that Jordin Sparks' stellar showing last week earned her enough goodwill to coast into the Top 9, I am actually a bit (just a bit) concerned about her. As I said in my recap, her performance of "Hey Baby" was so unexpected that it was a bit jarring, and I'm not sure how much it inspired people to pick up their phones. Even if she does make a surprise Bottom 3 showing, however, I don't think she is in actualy danger of being eliminated this week. At least I hope not -- the girl can siiiiiiiiiing!

Red Zone: Danger! Danger! Danger!
That leaves us with Haley Scarnato, Sanjaya Malakar, and Chris Sligh-- in my opinion the likeliest candidates for the Bottom 3 slots tonight.

Chris Sligh started this competition with such momentum -- he was going to be Season 6's quirky follow-up to Taylor Hicks. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't quite achieved the level of vocal or performance excellence that people were hoping for, and last night's performance was definitively his worst of the competition so far. What he has going for him, however, is that his fans know that he is in trouble, and as such his 'Fro Patrol devotees most likely dialed their little fingers off to save him. I don't think it will have been enough to keep him out of the Bottom 3 (or even the Bottom 2), but I do think he will be spared elimination this week.

Sanjaya Malakar's fanbase, meanwhile, must be diminishing at this point, especially after his utterly ridiculous performance last night. I mean, his "fans" must be abandoning him, right? Right? While I still think he has a week or two of life still left in him, I wouldn't be surprised to see him make a return trip to the Bottom 3 this week.

Chris and Sanjaya should both thank their lucky stars for Haley Scarnato, though, who took about 5 steps back from last week's playful and fun performance. Although she looked beautiful, she reverted back into Robo-Haley who performs as though she is the 50-year-old headliner on a cruise ship. She was so utterly forgettable singing "True Colors," that I would be shocked if she lasts one more week.

So there it is...Haley's gettin' the boot.

Gulp.