American Idol Top 12: What Order Will They Fall?

In what could best be described as an exercise in futility, I have decided to try and predict the order in which this year's Top 12 Idols will get voted off. As we all know, anything could happen at any point on this show, and there are a million reasons why a contestant could end up either leaving before their time or overstaying their welcome, so the chances of this list being relevant even a few weeks from now are pretty slim. After all, on the eve of the Top 12 performance in Season 5 could we have predicted that Bucky Covington would outlast Mandisa or that Chris Daughtry would get the boot before the final 3?

So, futile or not, here goes nothin'.

(Please note, this list is not in order of who I believe has the most talent or who I like the best, but rather it is the order I believe, at this very early point in the game, the contestants will get voted off)

12th Place: Haley Scarnato

See my post The "White Girl Spot": First to Go for my detailed logic, but I'm gonna have to go with history on this one and say Haley's gonna be the first casuality of AI6.

11th Place: Sanjaya Malakar

While not as blatant a pattern as the 12th place spot, it seems the second person sent home has historically been someone who probably shouldn't have made it to the Finals in the first place: Jim Verraros, Charles Grigsby, Matt Rogers, Mikalah Gordon, and Kevin Covais. Mr. Malakar will hopefully follow in their auspicious footsteps.

10th Place: Phil Stacey

Phil, to me, is a 'one-off'...he's almost cool and fun, and almost a really good singer, but not quite. Though I think he'll wear out his welcome and get sent back to his new baby by week 3, he'll be leavin' her once again to hit the road on tour this summer as part of the top 10.

9th Place: Brandon Rogers

Brandon could go earlier if he keeps up his snooze-inducing performances, but if he jives with the themes I can see him outlasting weird-beginning-of-songs Phil. Based on what we've seen so far, though, I gotta say I'm not expecting fireworks from Brandon during his time on the show.

8th Place: Stephanie Edwards

If it plays out as I've imagined 12 through 9 (and the chances of that are, oh, I don't know, slim-to-none), this is where I think Stephanie will have real difficulty siphoning votes from the other remaining girls.

7th Place: Jordin Sparks

Stephanie's saving grace will be if Jordin Sparks pulls a Lisa Tucker and shows her youth and vocal limitations too early (no, Lisa Tucker, it was not a good idea to sing Kelly Clarkson's "Because of You" in week 3) If she can keep on rockin' out like she did to "Heartbreaker" I think she could outlast Stephanie, although I can't imagine a scenario in which she finishes higher than 7th.

6th Place: Gina Glocksen

Gina has the distinct advantage of being different than every other girl in this competition, so she doesn't have to worry about vote-splitting and should easily survive the first several weeks. It will depend on how her vocals hold up and if she makes smart song choices, but finishing in the Carmen Rasmussen/Kimberly Caldwell range of #6 sounds about right.

5th Place: Chris Richardson

Will Blake and Chris R split the teenage girl vote? Possibly, but I'd bet there are so many teenage girls who watch this show that it won't even matter. If they do end up splitting the vote, however, I think Blake will likely have a broader range of fans by this point in the competition, simply due to the fact that he has more skills at his disposal. Chris, then, will have to settle for number 5.

4th Place: LaKisha Jones

On the surface it might seem odd to compare LaKisha to Tamyra Gray or Latoya London, but I believe LaKisha, like Tamyra and Latoya before her, will continue to inspire awe with her voice but find it difficult to really engage the audience with her personality. Her main female competition is obviously Melinda, who is incredibly likable and has provided the ultimate backstory (shy backup singer emerges into the spotlight). I'm thinking unless LaKisha can turn it up a notch in the personality department she may be looking at a fourth place finish.

3rd Place: Chris Sligh

This is the point in the list where I really start doubting myself, because as much as I like Chris Sligh now, do I really think he is going to finish #3? Ahead of LaKisha? I suppose I do, since there is his name up by 3rd place. I'm guessing halfway through the season Chris is going to become the love-him-or-hate-him character of the season, and his 'Fro Patrol will carry him a long way, though not quite the distance.

2nd Place: Melinda Doolittle

Winner of American Idol: Blake Lewis

Like I said, Melinda's got the backstory, and she's definitely got the voice, but when it comes down to the final 2 and she is standing next to Blake, the first contestant to bring an authentically hip, current feel to the show since Fantasia, who will American annoint its next Idol? At this moment I gotta go with Blake, who I'm guessing will have, by this point, dazzled the audience with his talent and versatility. Melinda, who is sure to be the most consistent performer in the competition (consistently great, at that), will have to settle for second place.

Or Sanjaya could win the whole thing. I mean, what the hell do I know?

Click to read Ten Best First Finals Performances