Who is in Danger This Week - Top 8?

Last Monday I suggested that Sanjaya Malakar, Haley Scarnato, and Phil Stacey were the contestants most in danger of facing elimination. As it turns out, two of these three individuals found themselves in the Bottom 3, but it was Gina Glocksen, who I had given an 11% chance of elimination, who somewhat surprisingly got the boot.

So...who is in danger this week? As I have done the past several weeks, I will identify the contestants I think should be most concerned going in to the Top 8 Performance Show, and then look at the likelihood that these contestants will actually be going home.

Of course, song choice and performance order could effect the outcome (Gina's choice of "Smile" certainly contributed to her relatively early ouster), but here's how I view the landscape with approximately 32 hours to go until showtime.

Melinda Doolittle/LaKisha Jones/Jordin Sparks
These three girls have separated themselves from the pack, consistently providing stellar vocal performances. None has spent any time in the Bottom 3, and I don't think their fanbases will let them down now. If each chooses an appropriate Latin-themed song this week, this year's version of the "Three Divas" should sail through to the Top 7.
Chance of going home (combined): Less than 6%

Blake Lewis
Last week, on "Mac the Knife," Blake showed he could really sing. This week is the perfect opportunity for him to bring back some of his beatboxing excitement on a funky Latin song, and really amp up the excitement factor. Also, since he led off the show last week, I expect he'll perform toward the end of the evening, if not actually receive the "pimp" spot at the end. This will only help assure he's around another week.
Chance of going home: 8%

Chris Richardson
Chris gave one of his strongest performances of the competition last week, and as long as he comes through with another solid showing he should be okay. The Latin theme could be tricky for him, so song choice will be, in the immortal words of Paula Abdul, "key important." Depending on how Sanjaya's fanbase is holding up, Chris could find himself in the Bottom 3, but even if he does spend some time center stage on Wednesday evening, he will most likely be around for the Top 7.
Chance of going home: 12%

Sanjaya Malakar
As Sanjaya continues to outlast more talented contestants (Chris Sligh, Gina Glocksen), it is looking more and more likely he'll end up at least a Top 6 contestant, a la Carmen Rasmussen and John Stevens. There is always the chance that his supporters will get overconfident and forget to vote for their boy, but I'm predicting Sanjaya will avoid elimination once again this week. It should be interesting to see what song (and hairstyle) he chooses, though -- possibly, as one commenter suggested, Carmen Miranda?
Chance of going home: 18%

Phil Stacey
Phil has found himself in the Bottom 3 on three separate occassions this season, which can't possibly inspire confidence in his fans that the guy will proceed much further in the competition, despite showing off pretty consistent vocals and a (slowly) improving sense of style. Kimberley Locke was able to overcome a shaky first few weeks to finish in 3rd place, but if Phil is going to accomplish a similar comeback, he's going to have start the turnaround immediately. Otherwise, I'm afraid it will be too late
Chance of going home: 26%

Haley Scarnato
After two Bottom 2 showings in a row, it's pretty clear Haley (and her fanbase) are running out of steam. How much longer can her legs save her? I'm thinking not much longer, and that we'll be seeing a montage of her time on American Idol come Wednesday evening.
Chance of going home: 30%

So there it is -- going into the Top 8, I think Sanjaya, Phil, and Haley need to be the most worried. As I said, anything could change after Tuesday night, but these contestants, especially, better give their performances all that they've got -- it could be their last shot.

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