Is The Final Four Now a Foregone Conclusion?

Every season of American Idol has brought surprises in the Final 4 -- sometimes good surprises (Kimberley Locke, Vonzell Solomon, Elliott Yamin), sometimes not-so-good (Nikki McKibbin, Jasmine Trias).

This year, more than any other year, the Final 4 seems like a bit of a foregone conclusion. Would anyone else be shocked if Melinda, LaKisha, Jordin, and Blake were not the last four standing?

True, there have been surprises so far this season (Sabrina not making the Top 12, the relatively early exits of Stephanie Edwards, Chris Sligh, and Gina Glocksen), and there will most likely continue to be surprises, at least minor ones, as the next few weeks unfold. But as of now, there are four contestants who have made at least one appearance in the Bottom 3, and there are four contestants who have managed to steer clear of the Bottom 3. That kind of division has never been so clear at this point in the competition.

Phil Stacey has been in the Bottom 3 three times. Haley Scarnato has been in the Bottom 2 for the last two weeks. Sanjaya Malakar made his only Bottom 2 appearance during the Top 12 round, while Chris Richardson fell into the Bottom 2 during Top 11 week. While the order in which these contestants will fall is slightly up in the air, I'm guessing the next four weeks will see these four exit one-by-one. (My guess of the order, at this moment, is Haley, then Phil, then Sanjaya, and then Chris).

As far as I'm concerned, this is the most predictable Top 4 we've ever had on American Idol. While Season 2's Kimberley Locke certainly deserved a Top 4 spot, talent-wise, her early Bottom 3 appearances certainly did not make her a lock to still be standing toward the end. The same could be said for Vonzell, Elliott, and even Katharine McPhee, who dipped into the Bottom 3 a couple of times herself before finishing as last year's runner-up.

Right now, however, Melinda, LaKisha, Jordin, and Blake seem so far ahead of the rest of the pack (in terms of talent and fanbase size) that there would have to be a major upset for one of these contestants to not make it to the final 4. Of course, Sanjaya's incomprehensible popularity could stand in their way, or Chris' cute-ness could propel him past LaKisha or Jordin, but I think these four have cemented such strong followings, and will continue to add to their legion of admirers over the next four weeks, that they will be able to hold off even the terrifying Malakar invasion.

But hey, I've thought Haley was going to go three of the last four weeks...so what do I know?