Top 9 - Who's Going Home Tonight?

Yes, it's time once again to try and figure out who will be going home tonight, joining the illustrious company of former 9th place finishers Jim Verraros, Corey Clarke, Camille Velasco, Nikko Smith, and Mandisa Hundley.

As I have done the last three weeks, I think the best way to make a prediction as to who is going to get kicked off tonight is by process of elimination -- figure out who is most likely to be safe, and go from there. Right now my track record is 1-for-3 -- I correctly predicted Stephanie's ouster two weeks ago, but I thought Haley would get the boot in the Top 12 and the Top 10. Will Ms. Scarnato (and her legs) foil me again?

I've identified three zones: Green (safe), Yellow (not on solid ground), and Red (danger danger danger!) Here goes...

Click here to read my Top 9 Performances Recap.

Green Zone: Safe
This category is looking pretty sparse this week, as it has only one contestant -- Melinda Doolittle. Her smoky, sassy, nuanced performance last night (along with the revelation that she does, in fact, have a neck) should allow her to easily sail into the Top 8.

Yellow Zone: Not on solid ground
LaKisha Jones makes her debut appearance in this category, joining fellow front-runner Jordin Sparks. Since I thought both were excellent last night (I even gave Jordin my "best in show" honors), why are they here? Because this is the point in the competition when voters start to get a bit lazy when it comes to the leaders of the pack, and I have a small concern (though just a small one) that viewers may not have hit the phones quite as hard as in weeks past in support of these girls. I can't imagine either one of them will be sent packin' tonight, but if one or the other slipped into the Bottom 3, while I would be disappointed, I would not be shocked.

Blake Lewis and Chris Richardson also belong in the Yellow Zone this week, but for very different reasons. Blake had the dreaded one-spot last night, and while he was pretty memorable jazzing up "Mac the Knife," that first performance spot has been killer in the past -- will it bring down Mr. Lewis as well? My thought is no, but like LaKisha and Jordin, I wouldn't be surprised if he spends just a bit of time on center stage tonight. Chris, while pretty solid, was, I thought, slightly over-praised by the judges, and the last time that occurred Chris ended up in the Bottom 2. It's not impossible that won't happen again tonight.

Phil Stacey, meanwhile, was given a bit of an unwarranted lashing from the judges, but I think the criticism, along with his Bottom 3 showing last week, will have inspired his fans to come out in support of their bald-headed boy. Like LaKisha, Jordin, Blake and Chris, there is a chance Phil might put in an appearance in the Bottom 3, but I don't think it's his time to go. Yet.

Red Zone: Danger! Danger! Danger!
That leaves us with Haley Scarnato, Sanjaya Malakar, and Gina Glocksen-- in my opinion the likeliest candidates for the Bottom 3 slots tonight.

It's nearly impossible to figure out what is going on with the viewers and Sanjaya, but I actually think that toning down the hair and the performance style, not to mention singing closer to on-key than he has in weeks, is actually going to net him less votes. With Sanjaya, the worse he does, the more votes he'll get. I'm still betting he's got a week or two of life left in him, but he could very well be making his first trip to the Bottom 3 since the Top 12.

Gina Glocksen, meanwhile, came out roaring last week, delivering what I thought was the best performance of the night. Unfortunately with the Idol viewers, it's a constant case of "what have you done for me lately?" and I'm not sure her just-above-average performance of "Smile" will be enough to satisfy the Idol masses. There is also the possibility that due to her strong showing last week her fans will assume her to be safe. Hopefully that assumption won't result in Gina getting shown the door before...

Haley Scarnato. Haley sang better than she has all season, and looked, as always, great, but I can't shake the feeling that she is just out of her league in this competition. If you took away her admittedly amazing legs, what does this girl have that makes her in any way unique? I never believed that she had much of a fanbase to begin with, but with the competition (particularly among the girls) really heating up, I would be shocked if Haley lasts one more week.

So there it is...for the third time this season I am predicting that Haley's gettin' the boot.

Gulp.