Tony Award Predictions: The Musicals

For theater fans and those that work in the industry, the Tony Awards are the culmination of the entire season's worth of fun, excitement, and yes, sometimes disappointment. Since the awards are just about 10 days away (they will be broadcast live on June 10th, from 8-11PM on CBS), I thought I would add my $.02 as to who will take home the big prizes.

In the spirit of full disclosure, I have seen about 90% of the shows that opened on Broadway this season (among the shows I missed: Translations, 110 in the Shade, Pirate Queen, Inherit the Wind, and Heartbreak House).

Last week I looked at the design awards -- this time, it's the musical prizes. Here goes...

Best Musical
Spring Awakening
Grey Gardens
Curtains
Mary Poppins

Should Win: Spring Awakening -- it is the freshest and most innovative musical to hit Broadway in years.
Will Win: Spring Awakening -- with the reviews it got, this one's practically a no-brainer.
Possible Spoiler: Grey Gardens

Best Revival of a Musical
A Chorus Line
The Apple Tree
110 in the Shade
Company

Should Win: A Chorus Line -- yes, it's essentially a replica of the original Broadway production, but in terms of thrilling theatrical experiences, nothing tops A Chorus Line
Will Win: Company -- since John Doyle's Sweeney Todd lost to The Pajama Game last year, expect the Tony voters to correct that oversight by awarding Doyle's Company the prize
Possible Spoiler: A Chorus Line -- for those (like myself) put off by the "actors play their own instruments" motif, the old-school charms of A Chorus Line may be enough to sway the vote

Best Director of a Musical
Michael Mayer, Spring Awakening
Michael Greif, Grey Gardens
Scott Ellis, Curtains
John Doyle, Company

Should Win: Mayer, Spring Awakening -- not only does Spring not sound like a Broadway musical, it doesn't look like on either, and that is, in large part, thanks to Mayer's brilliant and innovative direction
Will Win: Mayer, Spring Awakening
Possible Spoiler: Greif, Grey Gardens

Best Actor in a Musical
Jonathan Groff, Spring Awakening
Michael Cerveris, LoveMusik
Raul Esparza, Company
Gavin Lee, Mary Poppins
David Hyde Pierce, Curtains

Should Win: Groff, Spring Awakening -- the heart and soul of Spring Awakening, but voters could feel his youth means he will have plenty more opportunities to win the big prize.
Will Win: Esparza, Company -- Tony voters will think it's time to reward him after year's of excellent stage work.
Possible Spoiler: Cerveris, LoveMusik -- he missed out on a win for Sweeney Todd last year, so there's a chance he could sneak in to the winner's circle this year.

Best Actress in a Musical
Laura Bell Bundy, Legally Blonde
Christine Ebersole, Grey Gardens
Debra Monk, Curtains
Audra MacDonald, 110 in the Shade
Donna Murphy, LoveMusik

Should Win: Ebersole, Grey Gardens -- one of the best star turns in recent memory, but an undeserved win several years ago for 42nd Street, coupled with the fact that her show opened eons ago, could let one of her competitors make off with a victory.
Will Win: Ebersole, Grey Gardens
Possible Spoiler: MacDonald, 110 in the Shade or Murphy, LoveMusik -- both have multiple Tony's already (4 for MacDonald, 2 for Murphy), but both gave acclaimed performances this year and could steal Ebersole's thunder.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
John Gallagher Jr., Spring Awakening
David Pittu, LoveMusik
John Cullum, 110 in the Shade
Brooks Ashmanskas, Martin Short: Fame Becomes Me
Christina Borle, Legally Blonde

Should Win: Gallagher, Spring Awakening -- the perfect category to reward an exciting up-and-comer.
Will Win: Gallagher, Spring Awakening
Possible Spoiler: Pittu, LoveMusik

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Orfeh, Legally Blonde
Mary Louise Wilson, Grey Gardens
Karen Ziemba, Curtains
Rebecca Luker, Mary Poppins
Charlotte D'Amboise, A Chorus Line

Should Win: Wilson, Grey Gardens -- probably the easiest category of the night to predict -- Wilson is a shoo-in.
Will Win: Wilson, Grey Gardens
Possible Spoiler: Orfeh, Legally Blonde

Best Choreography of a Musical
Spring Awakening
Legally Blonde
Curtains
Mary Poppins

Should Win: Spring Awakening
Will Win: Spring Awakening
Possible Spoiler: Mary Poppins

Best Book of a Musical
Spring Awakening
Grey Gardens
Curtains
Legally Blonde

Should Win: Spring Awakening
Will Win: Grey Gardens
Possible Spoiler: Spring Awakening

Best Original Score
Spring Awakening
Grey Gardens
Curtains
Legally Blonde

Should Win: Spring Awakening
Will Win: Spring Awakening
Possible Spoiler: Grey Gardens

Best Orchestrations
Spring Awakening
Grey Gardens
LoveMusik
110 in the Shade

Should Win: Spring Awakening
Will Win: LoveMusik
Possible Spoiler: Grey Gardens

Click here to read Tony Award Predictions: Design Awards

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