Tony Award Predictions: The Musical Categories

It's an interesting year at the Tony Awards, with big buzz shows (The Little Mermaid, Young Frankenstein) snubbed, and smalled, edgier fare (Passing Strange, In the Heights) hogging most of the nominations.

By my tally, the big winner will be South Pacific -- I'm guessing Lincoln Center Theater's production of the great Rodgers & Hammerstein musical will take home 7 awards.

Here are my thoughts on who should and will win the top prizes on June 15th. Feel free to leave your thoughts below.

BEST MUSICAL
Cry-Baby
In the Heights
Passing Strange
Xanadu

Should Win: Passing Strange
Will Win: In the Heights

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Grease
Gypsy
South Pacific
Sunday in the Park With George

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Sam Buntrock, Sunday in the Park With George
Thomas Kail, In the Heights
Arthur Laurents, Gypsy
Bartlett Sher, South Pacific

Should Win: Sher
Will Win: Sher

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Cry-Baby, Mark O’Donnell and Thomas Meehan
In the Heights, Quiara Alegría Hudes
Passing Strange, Stew
Xanadu, Douglas Carter Beane

Should Win: Xanadu
Will Win: Xanadu

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (MUSIC AND/OR LYRICS) WRITTEN FOR THE THEATER
Cry-Baby, Music & Lyrics: David Javerbaum & Adam Schlesinger
In the Heights, Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda
The Little Mermaid, Music: Alan Menken; Lyrics: Howard Ashman and Glenn Slater
Passing Strange, Music: Stew and Heidi Rodewald; Lyrics: Stew

Should Win: In the Heights
Will Win: In the Heights

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daniel Evans, Sunday in the Park With George
Lin-Manuel Miranda, In the Heights
Stew, Passing Strange
Paulo Szot, South Pacific
Tom Wopat, A Catered Affair

Should Win: Miranda
Will Win: Szot

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Kerry Butler, Xanadu
Patti LuPone, Gypsy
Kelli O'Hara, South Pacific
Faith Prince, A Catered Affair
Jenna Russell, Sunday in the Park With George

Should Win: O'Hara
Will Win: Lupone

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daniel Breaker, Passing Strange
Danny Burstein, South Pacific
Robin De Jesus, In the Heights
Christopher Fitzgerald, Young Frankenstein
Boyd Gaines, Gypsy

Should Win: Breaker
Will Win: Gaines

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL de'Adre Aziza, Passing Strange
Laura Benanti, Gypsy
Andrea Martin, Young Frankenstein
Olga Merediz, In the Heights
Loretta Ables Sayre, South Pacific

Should Win: Benanti
Will Win: Benanti

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Rob Ashford, Cry-Baby
Andy Blankenbuehler, In the Heights
Christopher Gattelli, South Pacific
Dan Knechtges, Xanadu

Should Win: Cry-Baby
Will Win: Cry-Baby

Best Orchestrations
A Catered Affair
In the Heights
Passing Strange
Sunday in the Park With George

Should Win: Passing Strange
Will Win: Sunday in the Park with George

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Sunday in the Park With George
In the Heights
Young Frankenstein
South Pacific

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Sunday in the Park With George
Gypsy
In the Heights
South Pacific

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Sunday in the Park With George
In the Heights
South Pacific
The Little Mermaid

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

Best Sound Design of a Musical
In the Heights
Sunday in the Park With George
South Pacific
Gypsy

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific