Tony Award Predictions: The Musical Categories

It's an interesting year at the Tony Awards, with big buzz shows (The Little Mermaid, Young Frankenstein) snubbed, and smalled, edgier fare (Passing Strange, In the Heights) hogging most of the nominations.

By my tally, the big winner will be South Pacific -- I'm guessing Lincoln Center Theater's production of the great Rodgers & Hammerstein musical will take home 7 awards.

Here are my thoughts on who should and will win the top prizes on June 15th. Feel free to leave your thoughts below.

BEST MUSICAL
Cry-Baby
In the Heights
Passing Strange
Xanadu

Should Win: Passing Strange
Will Win: In the Heights

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Grease
Gypsy
South Pacific
Sunday in the Park With George

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Sam Buntrock, Sunday in the Park With George
Thomas Kail, In the Heights
Arthur Laurents, Gypsy
Bartlett Sher, South Pacific

Should Win: Sher
Will Win: Sher

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Cry-Baby, Mark O’Donnell and Thomas Meehan
In the Heights, Quiara Alegría Hudes
Passing Strange, Stew
Xanadu, Douglas Carter Beane

Should Win: Xanadu
Will Win: Xanadu

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE (MUSIC AND/OR LYRICS) WRITTEN FOR THE THEATER
Cry-Baby, Music & Lyrics: David Javerbaum & Adam Schlesinger
In the Heights, Music & Lyrics: Lin-Manuel Miranda
The Little Mermaid, Music: Alan Menken; Lyrics: Howard Ashman and Glenn Slater
Passing Strange, Music: Stew and Heidi Rodewald; Lyrics: Stew

Should Win: In the Heights
Will Win: In the Heights

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daniel Evans, Sunday in the Park With George
Lin-Manuel Miranda, In the Heights
Stew, Passing Strange
Paulo Szot, South Pacific
Tom Wopat, A Catered Affair

Should Win: Miranda
Will Win: Szot

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Kerry Butler, Xanadu
Patti LuPone, Gypsy
Kelli O'Hara, South Pacific
Faith Prince, A Catered Affair
Jenna Russell, Sunday in the Park With George

Should Win: O'Hara
Will Win: Lupone

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Daniel Breaker, Passing Strange
Danny Burstein, South Pacific
Robin De Jesus, In the Heights
Christopher Fitzgerald, Young Frankenstein
Boyd Gaines, Gypsy

Should Win: Breaker
Will Win: Gaines

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL de'Adre Aziza, Passing Strange
Laura Benanti, Gypsy
Andrea Martin, Young Frankenstein
Olga Merediz, In the Heights
Loretta Ables Sayre, South Pacific

Should Win: Benanti
Will Win: Benanti

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Rob Ashford, Cry-Baby
Andy Blankenbuehler, In the Heights
Christopher Gattelli, South Pacific
Dan Knechtges, Xanadu

Should Win: Cry-Baby
Will Win: Cry-Baby

Best Orchestrations
A Catered Affair
In the Heights
Passing Strange
Sunday in the Park With George

Should Win: Passing Strange
Will Win: Sunday in the Park with George

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Sunday in the Park With George
In the Heights
Young Frankenstein
South Pacific

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Sunday in the Park With George
Gypsy
In the Heights
South Pacific

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Sunday in the Park With George
In the Heights
South Pacific
The Little Mermaid

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

Best Sound Design of a Musical
In the Heights
Sunday in the Park With George
South Pacific
Gypsy

Should Win: South Pacific
Will Win: South Pacific

Predicting the Emmys: Supporting Actress in a Comedy

For the next two weeks, I will be giving my predictions for the 2007 Emmy Awards. Who was overlooked? Who should win? And who's gonna win?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
Conchata Ferrell, Two and a Half Men
Jenna Fischer, The Office
Elizabeth Perkins, Weeds
Jaime Pressly, My Name Is Earl
Holland Taylor, Two and a Half Men
Vanessa Williams, Ugly Betty

Overlooked:
Becki Newton, Ugly Betty
Judy Reyes, Scrubs
Nicolette Sheridan, Desperate Housewives

Should Win: Elizabeth Perkins

Will Win: Vanessa Williams

Potential Spoiler: Holland Taylor

If you removed both of the Two and a Half Men ladies from the equation, I'd be happy seeing the award go to any of the four remaining contenders. The Emmys love classy old dames, though, so don't be surprised if former winner Taylor sneaks into the winners circle. Fischer is the heart and soul of The Office, but her work may be too subtle to compete with the comedians in this category. Perkins is nothing short of extraordinary on Weeds, and no one gets more laughs on Earl than Pressly, but I'm guessing voters will want to reward Williams for her hysterical work as the ultimate bitch Wilhemina on Ugly Betty. At least we know she'll be wearing something fabulous when she accepts the award!

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The Emmy Nominations are Coming!

Only one more day until the 2007 Primetime Emmy Award nominations are announced.

Will newbies Friday Night Lights and Heroes make the cut? How about deserving candidates Kyle Chandler, Sally Field, Connie Britton, Walton Goggins, and Denis Leary? And will Lauren Graham finally grab a nod for Gilmore Girls now that it has switched over to the drama category?

Click here for my predictions on the Comedy Awards

Click here for my predictions on the Drama Awards

And check back tomorrow for the nominations!

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So You Think You Can Dance - Who Will Be Eliminated Tonight?

You can read my recap and rankings from last night's show here, but here are my predictions for the Bottom 3 couples of the evening, and which male and female dancer will be sent packin'.

Bottom 3 Couples
Faina and Cedric
Shauna and Jimmy
Hok and Jaimie

In my opinion these were the three weakest couples of the night, and will also be the three couples dancing for their lives. There's no doubt Hok has a large fanbase, and it's possible the Hok-ites could have saved him and Jaimie last night, but I'm guessing their uninspiring samba will land them in the danger zone. If Hok's supporters do spare him, it's possible Neil and Lauren could slip into the Bottom 3, or even, despite a surprisingly solid showing last night, D-Trix and Sabra. But one thing is for certain -- Faina and Cedric's names will most definitely be called.

Eliminated Boy: Cedric
Cedric was hands down the weakest individual of the night, and definitely deserves to get the boot, but my beloved Mia Michaels is the wildcard here, as she is sure to fight for Cedric. Will his freestyle save him again? Hok's tricks always dazzle, so if Mia does throw her weight behind Cedric, expect Jimmy to be shown the door.

Eliminated Girl: Jaimie
Faina is in danger tonight -- she was sensational doing the fox trot, and if her freestyle is even half as good as the number she did last week, she'll definitely be around next week. Shauna has given two so-so performances, but she's improving slightly, so that may be enough to earn her another week, which leaves dumb-as-bricks Jaimie as the likely evictee.

Does this sound about right to you? Who do you think will get the boot?

Click for more So You Think You Can Dance, including a full recap of last night's show.

Predicting the Emmy Nominations: The Dramas

There's still about a month until this year's Emmy Award nominations are announced, but since the 2006-2007 television season has come to an end, I thought it would be fun to try and predict who will and won't make the cut.

This list actually includes two sets of predictions -- who I think should be nominated, and who I think will be nominated. First up -- the prizes for Best Drama, Best Actor and Actress in a Drama, and Best Supporting Actor and Actress in a Drama. The rest of the categories will follow later in the week.

Best Drama Series
Will 24 be rewarded, even though last year's Best Drama had it's worst season yet? Will bad feelings about The Sopranos finale cause it to miss out on a nod? Will The Wire, hands down the best show on TV, or any of FX's dynamite shows (Rescue Me, The Shield, The Riches) make the cut? How about deserving newbies Brothers & Sisters, Friday Night Lights, and The Tudors?

Should Be Nominated:
Friday Night Lights
Grey's Anatomy
Lost
Rescue Me
The Wire

Will Be Nominated:
Friday Night Lights
Grey's Anatomy
Heroes
Lost
The Sopranos

Best Actor in a Drama
Will 24's creative slump mean last year's champ Kiefer Sutherland will be left off the list? Will last year's egregious snub of Hugh Laurie be rectified this year? Will Kyle Chandler be rewarded for his superb work on Friday Night Lights? And how about other stars of freshman series, The Tudors' Jonathan Rhys Meyers and Dexter's Michael C. Hall?

Should Be Nominated:
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
Michael Chiklis, The Shield
Matthew Fox, Lost
Hugh Laurie, House
Denis Leary, Rescue Me

Will Be Nominated:
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights
James Gandolfini, The Sopranos
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Hugh Laurie, House
Kiefer Sutherland, 24

Best Actress in a Drama
For the first time in years The West Wing's Allison Janney is not eligible, which opens up at least one new spot on the list. Could that spot be taken by perpetual Emmy snubee Lauren Graham, whose show, Gilmore Girls, has made the switch from Comedy to Drama? Or what about Veronica Mars' Kristen Bell, whose beloved show was killed before it's time? Will former champs Mariska Hargitay and Patricia Arquette make the list again? And which of Brothers & Sisters leading ladies will get a nod?

Should Be Nominated:
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Calista Flockhart, Brothers & Sisters
Lauren Graham, Gilmore Girls
Ellen Pompeo, Grey's Anatomy

Will Be Nominated:
Edie Falco, The Sopranos
Sally Field, Brothers & Sisters
Mariska Hargitay, Law and Order: SVU
Ellen Pompeo, Grey's Anatomy
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama
You could fill this entire category with the cast of Friday Night Lights, but will Emmy recognize any of the incredibly naturalistic young actors? Will Walton Goggins garner a nod for his shattering work on this season of The Shield? And what about the men of Lost? Dominic Monaghan, Michael Emerson, Terry O'Quinn, Daniel Dae Kim, Ian Cusick, Naveen Andrews, and Jorge Garcia are all worthy, but will any of their names be called on July 19?

Should Be Nominated:
Zach Gilford, Friday Night Lights
Walton Goggins, The Shield
TR Knight, Grey's Anatomy
Dominic Monaghan, Lost
Scott Porter, Friday Night Lights

Will Be Nominated:
Michael Emerson, Lost
Walton Goggins, The Shield
TR Knight, Grey's Anatomy
Dominic Monaghan, Lost
Masi Oka, Heroes

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama
This seems to be the hardest category to call, with almost a dozen deserving candidates in the mix. Chandra Wilson, Katherine Heigl, Kate Walsh, and Sandra Oh are all worthy contenders, but which of Grey's Anatomy's supporting ladies will make the cut? Will Gilmore Girls' Kelly Bishop finally get the recognition she deserves? And will Lost's newest cast member pick up a nomination?

Should Be Nominated:
Kelly Bishop, Gilmore Girls
Katherine Heigl, Grey's Anatomy
Elizabeth Mitchell, Lost
CCH Pounder, The Shield
Callie Thorne, Rescue Me

Will Be Nominated:
Katherine Heigl, Grey's Anatomy
Elizabeth Mitchell, Lost
Sandra Oh, Grey's Anatomy
CCH Pounder, The Shield
Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy

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SYTYCD: Who is Going Home Tonight (Top 20)

You can read my recap of last night's show here, but here are my predictions for the Bottom 3 couples of the evening, and which male and female dancer will be sent packin'.

Bottom 3 Couples
Faina and Cedric
Shauna and Jimmy
D-Trix and Sabra

While Ricky and Ashlee were probably the worst couple of the night, I think Ricky's strangeness will actually work to his benefit, as it made him stand out on a packed full episode. Hok/Jaimie and Neil/Lauren also didn't have great performances, but I think they'll be spared by pre-existing fanbases.

Eliminated Boy: Jimmy
D-Trix and Cedric will likely wow with their freestyles, which means Jimmy will probably get the boot. With so many other contemporary dancers in the competition (Danny, Neil, Kameron), Jimmy just doesn't stand out.

Eliminated Girl: Shauna
Faina is certainly in danger of joining her brother Stanislav as a first week evictee, but Shauna's dancing was so uninspired during her Broadway routine, I'll be surprised if the judges are able to overlook it.

So there it is, my first predictions of the season. We'll see how I do in about six hours...

Click for more So You Think You Can Dance, including a full recap of last night's show.

Tony Award Predictions Part 3: The Plays

For theater fans and those that work in the industry, the Tony Awards are the culmination of the entire season's worth of fun, excitement, and yes, sometimes disappointment. Since the awards are just about 4 days away (they will be broadcast live on June 10th, from 8-11PM on CBS), I thought I would add my $.02 as to who will take home the big prizes.

In the spirit of full disclosure, I have seen about 90% of the shows that opened on Broadway this season (among the shows I missed: Translations, 110 in the Shade, Pirate Queen, Inherit the Wind, A Moon for the Misbegotten and Heartbreak House).

I've taken a look at the design awards and the musical awards -- this time, it's the prizes for the plays. Here goes...

Best Play
The Coast of Utopia
Little Dog Laughed
Frost/Nixon
Radio Golf

Should Win: The Coast of Utopia -- yes, I'm a bit biased, but there is a reason the Lincoln Center Theater production of the Tom Stoppard trilogy has been called "the theatrical event of the season." If a dazzling production of a great play with a fantastic cast isn't enough to grab the top prize, what is?
Will Win: The Coast of Utopia
Possible Spoiler: Frost/Nixon

Best Revival of a Play
Journey's End
Talk Radio
Inherit the Wind
Translations

Should Win: Journey's End -- this was one of the best reviewed plays of the season, and likely the only shot it has at taking home an award. Probably a shoo-in.
Will Win: Journey's End
Possible Spoiler: Talk Radio


Best Director of a Play
Jack O'Brien, The Coast of Utopia
Melly Still, Coram Boy
Michael Grandage, Frost/Nixon
David Grindley, Journey's End

Should Win: O'Brien -- three parts and 44 actors -- who else could have staged such a mammoth project with such theatrical magic? He should win the award for the curtain call alone.
Will Win: O'Brien
Possible Spoiler: Grindley

Best Performance by an Actor in a Play
Brian F. O'Byrne, The Coast of Utopia
Christopher Plummer, Inherit the Wind
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Liev Schreiber, Talk Radio
Boyd Gaines, Journey's End

Should Win: Langella -- much more than an impression, Langella sometimes brashly and sometimes hearbreakingly summons the soul and spirit of Richard Nixon. A brilliant performance.
Will Win: Langella
Possible Spoiler: Schreiber -- theater folk love Schreiber (he won the Tony two years ago for Glengary Glenn Ross and picked up the Drama League Award for Distinguished Performance this year), so there is a small chance he could sneak in and grab the prize.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Play
Eve Best, A Moon for the Misbegotten
Julie White, Little Dog Laughed
Angela Lansbury, Deuce
Vanessa Redgrave, A Year of Magical Thinking
Swoosie Kurtz, Heartbreak House

Should Win: White -- I didn't see Best's performance, but White was hilariously on-point as a maniacal agent.
Will Win: Best -- this performance has been acclaimed right and left, so even though I haven't experienced it myself, I'm guessing she's gonna walk away the victor.
Possible Spoiler: Lansbury -- will voters be able to avoid the temptation to give Lansbury her fifth award?

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Billy Crudup, The Coast of Utopia
Ethan Hawke, The Coast of Utopia
Anthony Chisolm, Radio Golf
John Jelks, Radio Golf
Stark Sands, Journey's End

Should Win: Crudup -- both comically brilliant and devastatingly sad, Crudup gives, in my opinion, a career-best performance as the tortured Belinsky. Hawke has the bigger part, but Crudup leaves the more indelible impression.
Will Win: Crudup
Possible Spoiler: Chisolm -- his presence alone is enough to lift the quality of Radio Golf, and those voters who avoided Coast of Utopia will likely check his name off.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Jennifer Ehle, The Coast of Utopia
Martha Plimpton, The Coast of Utopia
Xanthe Elbrick, Coram Boy
Jan Maxwell, Coram Boy
Dana Ivey, Butley

Should Win: Ehle -- playing three incredibly different women, Ehle makes sure that the boys don't steal the show. My favorite of the three? Her complex, sensual Natalie Herzen.
Will Win: Plimpton -- she doesn't really get to flaunt her stuff until Part 3, but once she gets the spotlight, she dazzles. She's also picked up the Outer Critics' Circle and Drama Desk Awards, so a Tony victory would seem appropriate.
Possible Spoiler: Ehle -- I think it will come down to the two Coast women -- which will prevail?

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