Thursday, March 06, 2008

American Idol Elimination Prediction: Kady and Luke are Shoo-Ins to Go, But Who Will Join Them?

I've ranked the contestants (click for the BOYS and for the GIRLS) -- now it's time to figure out who's going home!

Green Zone - Safe by a mile!
Boys: David Archuleta, David Cook, Jason Castro
Girls: Carly Smithson, Brooke White, Amanda Overmyer

Archuleta's a no-brainer -- this kid won't be leaving the Green Zone for some time (if ever!) David Cook and Jason Castro gave stand-out performances this week, so they, too, should have no problem cruising into the Top 12.

Smithson and White, meanwhile, have been the most consistent of the female performers, and both should easily make it to the bigger stage. While Amanda's had a rough go of it in the semifinals, she chose the right time to step it up, and as such she's good-to-go.

Yellow Zone - On Shaky Ground!
Boys: Michael Johns, David Hernandez
Girls: Ramiele Malbubay

Michael Johns is losing his frontrunner status quickly, but he's got enough leftover goodwill to have nothing to worry about tonight. While the "stripper scandal of '08" may wind up hurting Hernandez, I think he's got the vocal chops, performance skills and the fanbase to last at least a few more weeks.

Ramiele has fallen into that dangerous middle ground of not being spectacular but also not terrible, but, like Johns, I think she has enough residual favor with the fans to make it to the finals.

Red Zone - Danger, Danger, Danger!
Boys: Luke Menard, Chekezie, Danny Noriega
Girls: Syesha Mercado, Asia'h Epperson, Kristy Lee Cook, Kady Malloy

If there's a sure thing this week, it's that Luke Menard is getting the boot. He's bland, he doesn't have the vocal chops of his competitors, and he had the dreaded first performance slot -- a sure-fire recipe for elimination. But which boy will join him?

While Danny Noriega has yet to show off the skillz he displayed in his initial audition, his buzz-worthy attitude will probably spare him at least one more week. That leaves Chekezie, who undoubtedly has a great voice, but has failed to truly connect with the audience.

As for the girls, I'd say Kady is also likely to go -- how can the audience forgive three straight tuneless, forgettable performances? Who will join her, though, is a much more difficult question.

If I was going based on performances alone, I'd say Kristy Lee Cook is getting the boot. However, being the only country gal left in the competition will likely spare her for at least one more week.

Which means it comes down to Asia'h Epperson and Syesha Mercado, both of whom have good voices but have yet to bring anything special or unique to the competition. In addition, the fact that both chose Whitney Houston songs means they will have likely split at least part of the vote. While I personally prefer Asia'h (although not by much), she, like Luke, was saddled with the first performance slot, and as such I'm afraid she's gonna be the "big, shocking" elimination of the evening.


Elimination Prediction
Boys: Luke Menard and Chekezie
Girls: Kady Malloy and Asia'h Epperson

Thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Let me know!

READ: Ranking the Top 8 Guys -- Three David's Top the List for the Second Straight Week

READ: Ranking the Top 8 Girls -- Brooke On Top, While Amanda Makes a Big Comeback


TedE said...

Luke..yes-gotta go! He is use to being a part of a group..and his voice lacks the fullness to be a solo artist.

Chikezie..yes-doesn't connect & doesn't seem current. Not a bad singer, but not an AI.

Kady..yes-more than likely. I like her, but she's just not gettin' it done!!! the second girl is a toss up for me. Asia'h has a very strange tone to her voice. I don't enjoy listening to her for long. The other is Syesha. I've not liked her from the beginning. She's beautiful & could be great on TV or modeling, but her voice is not what I consider very good. She never stays on one note...and has gone sharp too many times to count.

Anonymous said...

Here are my predictions on who will go home:

Guys-Danny Noriega and Luke Menard

Girls-Kady Malloy and Amanda Overmyer

I stand by it.

Joshua said... gut says go with Kady & Kristy, but can two blondes really go home together? Kristy's got the vocals of Pickler, but not the goofy podunk personality, so it's hard to say if she'll stick around as long as her. Both black girls doing Whitney MUST split the vote, and it doesn't help that one was first and one was last. Normally I'd say Asia'h would be going since she was first up, but I think Syesha's by-the-book performance along with the judges not having time to critique her will do her in. Plus really, with Tobacco Road and the vanilla Me & Mr Jones behind her, was it enough to land her ahead of Asia'h?

Going home:
Kady Malloy
Syesha Mercado

The boys are tricky as well, though obviously Luke is out. If he stays, then that will be one of the biggest shockers in the past two seasons. Who will share the van home with him though: Danny, or Chikezie? Danny has been getting by on attitude, the Sanjaya Factor, and MAYBE with the help of VoteForTheWorst since the Top 24. We have yet to see a vocal that matches his Hollywood performances. Chikezie however started very weak, picked up for the Top 20, and just kind of went middle of the road this week. People aren't connecting with him, so I think ultimately that will do him in. I just don't see him getting a large fanbase, even though he's the only black male soul singer in the lot.

Going home:
Luke Menard
Chikezie Eze

Phew!!! I at least gotta tell myself that 2 outta 4 ain't bad!

Anonymous said...

I think that Danny Noriega has got to go because he looks like a girl. I hope he goes home tonight. For the girls I think that Ashia'h Epperson and Kady Malloy will get the boot but will see what happens.

Anonymous said...

I agree with your elimination predictions fully. Book ending the show with the Whitney songs will hurt both Asia’h and Syesha, but I think that Asia’h will be the one to go.

The one point on which I disagree is your ranking of Ramiele. I would put her in the red zone as well. I thought that she was really quite bad for two weeks in a row – while I thought she was great the first week. She excels when she lets herself go, but recently she has been too timid and self aware. Whether she is trying to think of the words, as the judges suggest, or she just cannot handle the medium stage (as they say, the next level is the “BIG” stage), she comes across that she does not really fit in with what she is trying to do. It is a shame because I think that she had a lot of potential, and, even if she survives another week or two, I doubt that she will go much farther.