Forecasting Idol: Which One (or Two) of the Top 13 Will Go Home First?

Well, I've been quiet during the first two months of American Idol, but I can't keep my opinions to myself any longer! (Click here to read I'M BACK -- FOR REAL THIS TIME).

To kick off my return to the world of Idol commentary, I thought I'd take a look at the Top 13 and try to predict which one (or, based on the fact that there may be a double elimination tonight, two) contestants will receive the distinction of being the first (and possibly second) to get sent packin'. Keep in mind I am writing this without knowing the performance order, the contestants' song choices, and, of course, how well (or badly) they will perform.

Here goes!

TOTALLY SAFE

Danny Gokey
Sure, controversy has brewed around this recent widow, but I think he's heard the message loud and clear -- steer clear of the dead wife talk, and stick to the singing. There's no doubt this guy has a killer voice, and as long as he lets the viewers focus on that, there's no way he won't be around for awhile.

Adam Lambert
Those somewhat shocking photos of his man-on-man tongue kissing might have meant doomsday for a lesser performer, but Adam's ridiculously good voice should continue earning him enough fans to overcome the homophobic naysayers that claim America can't have a gay Idol. Adam seems totally comfortable with who he is, which should help put viewers at ease, and allow them to be entertained by this fantastic vocalist.

Allison Irahata
While one performance does not an Idol make, Allison's great take on Heart's "Alone" has earned her enough goodwill (and a bit of frontrunner status), that even a stumble during Michael Jackson week won't be too troubling for the pink haired teenager.

Anoop Desai
In some ways the Wildcard contenders come into the Top 13 with the biggest advantage -- America has heard them sing twice. Anoop, particularly, will reap the benefits of this, as his infectious performance of "My Perogerative" reminded voters what they love about him, and that love is not likley to disipate any time soon.

MOSTLY SAFE

Scott Macintyre>
I'm still not sold on the vocal stylings of Idol's first blind contestant, but there's no doubt the guy is likable. He's got a free pass to at least the Top 10.

Kris Allen
I know Kris isn't the best singer this show has ever seen, but he's so darn cute! You best believe I'm not the only one who thinks so, and in a crowded field of 13, expect his cutie patootie-ness (and not bad voice) to stand out.

Lil Rounds
Perhaps I'm jaded by the top-notch R&B divas this show has produced in the past (J-Hud, Fantasia, Latoya London -- heck, even Trenyce!), but Lil just hasn't blown me away yet. That may change, but I wouldn't call her a sure-thing just yet.

Matt Giraud
His performance last week was MILES better than his initial semifinal audition, but I just can't get his wobbly version of Coldplay's latest single out of my mind. I think he'll make it through this week, but he'll have to string together some solid performances to really make a dent in the competition.

IN TROUBLE

Alexis Grace
Her week one semifinal performance was undoubtedly strong, but that was a long time ago -- will America remember how much they like this pixie-ish wailer? She's going to need a couple more strong performances if she wants to be more than a week one flash-in-the-pan.

Jorge Nunez
His strong voice and endearing tears helped him beat out Ju'not Joyner for a spot in the Top 13, but his style is so old-fashioned, I just can't picture him every getting to the front of the pack. One bad performance and this guy could be gone.

Michael Sarver
Easily the least inspired performer in the Top 13, this guys is, in my eyes, the least likely to crack the Top 10. How far can being an oil rigger really propel him?

Megan Corkrey
I love this girl's unique voice and winning smile, but I'm not so sure the rest of America does. As one of only five women she's likely to stand out, but she's going to have to start amassing fans quickly if she wants to last awhile.

Jasmine Sullivan
This year's "huh?!?" finalist would seem to be the easy pick to go home first, and if Season 3 is any indication, when Leah Labelle creapt into the Top 12 only to be eliminated a week later, we may not be seeing Jasmine for very long. Consider Carmen Rasmussen in Season 2, who was also a "huh?!?" choice -- she ended up cracking the Top 6. Which way will Jasmine fall?

AND...
So, there it is. While Megan and Jorge are on thin ice, I think it will ultimately be Michael Sarver (if one goes), or Michael and Jasmine Sullivan (if two get sent home).

Agree? Disagree? Sound off in the comments section below!