American Idol Top 13 Recap and Elimination Prediction

The first round of the American Idol season 8 finals is over! Before I get to elimination predictions, here's how I'd rank the Top 13:

1. Adam Lambert, A
2. Danny Gokey, A-
3. Lil Rounds, B+
4. Allison Irahata, B+
5. Alexis Grace, B+
6. Megan Corkrey, B
7. Kris Allen, B
8. Scott Macintyre, B
9. Matt Giraud, B-
10. Michael Sarver, B-
11. Jorge Nunez, C+
12. Anoop Desai, C
13. Jasmine Murray, C

You know it's a good week when even the lowest score is a C! Good job Top 13!

Now, on to who is going home tonight -- much complicated by the rule change (read POSSIBLE SPOILER - THE SCOOP ON THE AMERICAN IDOL RULE CHANGE). First let's identify who is totally safe, who is on shaky ground, and who is in the danger zone.

Green Zone - Totally Safe
Get used to seeing these three names in the Green Zone -- Danny Gokey, Adam Lambert and Lil Rounds. Lambert was on fire last night, showing off his vocal fireworks and his total control of the stage -- this guy is definitely in it for the long haul. Gokey also had a good night -- he sounded great, and he toned down the dramatics around his wife's recent death, in the process cementing his frontrunner status. And though Rounds had the dreaded first performance slot of the night, her assured singing and poise on the stage ensure her at least a few more weeks in the competition.

Yellow Zone - On Shaky Ground
While Anoop Desai had arguably the worst performance last night, turning in a total karaoke showing, his extremely large fanbase will make sure he's not in danger of elimination so early on. Scott Macintyre, meanwhile, showed us that he really is better when he's behind the piano, even if he isn't the most dynamic of the performers on the show. Alexis Grace, while oversinging a bit at times, proved her semifinal showing wasn't a fluke -- this girl has pipes and attitude, and could end up a force to be reckoned with. And then there's Matt Giraud, who I'm still not totally sold on. He definitely seems more comfortable pounding those keys, but how long until his breathy singing and wavering vibrato start getting annoying? I'm giving it two weeks.

Red Zone - Danger Danger Danger!
The five members of this group did not necessarily give the worst performances last night -- in fact, some of them were in my Top 5 for the night. As counterintuitive as it sounds, at this early stage in the finals it's almost more important than you stand out than that you sing well. Thus, I've got to put Allison Irahata in this category. She was fantastic last night, but I'm not quite sure she convinced viewers to head to their phones and power-dial. Ditto Megan Corkrey -- unlike the judges, I adored her rendition of "Rockin' Robin" and think her unique vocal stylings are essential for the competition, but I'm worried the majority of Americans might disagree with me.

Then there's cutie Kris Allen, who was totally charming strumming his guitar and crooning Jason Mraz-style -- but was he too lowkey to stand out? Michael Sarver was way better than I expected him to be, but he still strikes me much more as a "good singer" than a potential American Idol. As for Jorge Nunez, is there any doubt after last night's performance that he's corny and old fashioned? And Jasmine Murray, while totally adorable, continues to choose the wrong songs for her voice (and age), and could find herself in serious trouble tonight.

FINAL PREDICTION
Predictions need to happen in two waves this year -- guessing who America put into the Bottom 3, and then imagining who the judges will send home from that group.

I think the fangirls will save Kris, and Megan has enough fans to keep her out of real danger for at least one more week, meaning...

My guess for the Bottom 3:
Jasmine Murray
Jorge Nunez
Michael Sarver

Can the judges really give Jasmine another chance? And is it just me, or do they seem a little over Jorge? Thus...

Eliminated Contestants:
Jasmine Murray
Jorge Nunez

Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment below and let me know!