AMERICAN IDOL Top 9 Recap and Elimination Prediction

I was really looking forward to last night's episode of American Idol, to see if this year's crew could tackle contemporary songs and demonstrate to the audience where in the pop music landscape they would fall. With two notable exceptions, however, I was quite disappointed -- poor song choices and karaoke-esque performances abounded. There's no doubt we've got a Top 9 brimming with talent, but are they losing steam about halfway through the competition?

Before I get to my elimination predictions, here's my rankings of the Top 9:

1. Kris Allen, A-
2. Adam Lambert, A-
3. Danny Gokey, B+
4. Allison Iraheta, B-
5. Lil Rounds, B-
6. Scott Macintyre, C
7. Matt Giraud, C-
8. Anoop Desai, C-
9. Megan Joy, D

Ok, on to the elimination prediction...

Green Zone - Totally Safe
Kris Allen, who I develop a bigger crush on by the week, once again showed he's taking this thing seriously, reinventing "Ain't No Sunshine" into a self-accompanied showstopper. Sure, this guy doesn't have the best voice in the competition, but 4 solid performances in a row mean he's gonna be in it for the long haul.

Ditto Adam Lambert, who gave a totally joyful performance of "Play that Funky Music" that allowed him to show off the lighter side of his personality and his killer voice. In my mind, if Adam doesn't win the whole thing, America is most definitely not voting for the strongest vocalist.

I'm also going to include Danny Gokey in this group, even though he's been slipping the past few weeks. After last week's "clumsy" showing, his choice to sing a Rascal Flatts song was an inspired one, and he delivered it with gusto. While it wasn't nearly as musically interesting as Kris or Adam, it should be more than enough for him to advance to the Top 8.

Yellow Zone - On Shaky Ground
Mark my words -- Matt Giraud is going to have a nervous breakdown live on TV. The poor guy clearly wants to be a rockstar, but the judges (and, likely, his fans at home) would prefer he stick to the Timberlake-esque tunes. I think he'll be okay this week, though, as his Bottom 2 scare should motivate his fans (even those who didn't love his rendition of The Fray's Adult Contemporary hit) to pick up the phone. Still -- get the straight jacket ready.

Then there's Lil Rounds, who I consider the competition's biggest disappointment thus far. There's no doubt she can sing, but this girl has absolutely no originality. "I Surrender"? Really? I love the song (especially when Kelly Clarkson killed it back in Season 1), but I though Lil was this year's R&B diva. How about showing some spunk, as opposed to singing every note exactly as it was written? Still, I think she'll live to sing another week.

Red Zone -- Danger Danger Danger!
That leaves Scott Macintyre, Anoop Desai, Megan Joy, and my beloved Allison Iraheta in the danger zone. Allison, you say? How could that be? Well, after last week's strong showing I'm afraid her fans may take her safety for granted, and her just so-so performance of No Doubt's "Don't Speak" may not have been enough to remind them she needs their votes.

As for Scott, will a leather jacket and a new (pompadour) 'do be enough to spare him? While I was bored to tears by his performance, there's no doubt this guy knows who he is (an Adult Contemporary artist through and through), and that's more than we can say for...

Anoop Desai. Oh, Anoop, what were you thinking choosing Usher's "Caught Up"? When are you going to get it through your head that you are not an R&B star? Perhaps a trip to the Bottom 2 (or, worst, an elimination) will finally convince him to stick to the ballads and leave the "entertaining" to Mr. Lambert.

Then there's Megan, who I really did adore during the first couple of weeks in the competition. Unfortunately, in the last couple of performances she has displayed absolutely zero performance savvy, and on top of that she's now coming off a bit cocky. (If I hear her mention "my fans" one more time I'm going to scream!) I think it may be time to put this quirky songbird down.

Final Prediction

Bottom 3:
Allison Iraheta
Megan Joy
Anoop Desai

Bottom 2
Megan Joy
Anoop Desai

Eliminated: Megan Joy

Agree? Disagree? Sound off in the comments section below!

American Idol Top 11 Recap and Elimination Prediction

I'll be the first to admit that I was skeptical about this year's talent, but after two solid weeks of performance shows, I've gotta say -- the talent pool on this year's American Idol just might actually be the best yet.

Of course, let's acknowledge that there are 10 weeks left in the competition, and though contestants like Danny Gokey, Adam Lambert, Allison Irahata and Alexis Grace have shown they have talent in spades, and others like Kris Allen, Anoop Desai and Matt Giraud have proven themselves capable of delivering top-notch performances, we've still got a lot of ground to cover. And while there hasn't been a trainwreck yet, there have also not been jaw-dropping displays of vocal virtuosity (save, perhaps, Adam's "Black and White" last week).

Still -- so far, so good.

Before I get to the elimination prediction, here are my rankings for the Top 11:

1. Kris Allen, A-
2. Anoop Desai, A-
3. Allison Irahata, A-
4. Matt Giraud, A-
5. Danny Gokey, B+
6. Alexis Grace, B+
7. Adam Lambert, B
8. Megan Corkrey, B-
9. Lil Rounds, B-
10. Michael Sarver, C+
11. Scott Macintyre, C

On to the elimination predictions...

Green Zone - Totally Safe
Danny Gokey played right into his Christian rock comfort zone last night, and as a result, he should be just fine this week. Ditto Adam Lambert, whose goodwill from last week should power him through to the Top 10 despite the fact that he took a risk that didn't quite pay off. (Say what you will about the guy, but he definitely stayed true to his own sense of artistry.) Then there's the three gentlemen who tapped into their tender sides -- Kris Allen, Matt Giraud and Anoop Desai. All three sounded great and really connected with the songs they chose, and all three should have no problem advancing in the competition.

Yellow Zone - On Shaky Ground
There's no denying Lil Rounds has a killer voice, but her decision to "respect" the country song she choose, as opposed to infusing it with her own R&B flavor, made the end result pretty bland. She should be fine, but she better step it up in weeks to come or she'll find herself in the Red Zone.

Red Zone - Danger Danger Danger!
I've put five contestants into the Red Zone this week, and truly any of them is in danger of going home. Allison Irahata was fantastic last night (as you can see above, she was my third favorite of the evening), but I'm concerned that her consistency may actually be working against her -- could she fall into the Bottom 3 tonight, or even worse be eliminated? Alexis Grace has also given three strong performances thus far in the competiton, but the judges lukewarm reaction to her rendition of "Jolene" could spell trouble.

Then there's Megan Corkrey, who may just be saved by the revelation that she performed with the flu. I'm actually quite fond of this girl, quirky dancing and wonky notes and all, but I'm getting the sense that America may be tiring of her. Will they kick her while she's down and eliminate her this week?

That leaves Michael Sarver and Scott Macintyre. Sarver adequately performed Garth Brooks' tounge-twister (previously performed on Idol by Josh Gracin and Latoya London), but going first and not doing anything spectacular with the song may be doom for the oil rigger. As for Macintyre, he sounded just fine, but he's so Adult Contemporary boooooring that I'm having trouble imagining people running to their phones to vote for him. Neither gentleman is a bad singer, but either could easily go home this week.

Final Prediction
Bottom 3:
Michael Sarver
Alexis Grace
Scott Macintyre

Bottom 2:
Michael Sarver
Scott Macintyre

Eliminated: Michael Sarver

There you have it folks. Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment and let me know!

Random American Idol Musings: Adam, Kris, Matt, Lil, Anoop and Ricky (!!)

Since I've been MIA since the start of Idol season, I thought I'd share some thoughts from the past couple of months:

• Though I don't think she's offered anything particularly noteworthy thus far, I'm kinda digging Kara DioGuardi. In fact, I'd give Randy Jackson the boot and keep Kara!
• Is it just me, or has Ryan Seacrest been looking kinda cute this season?
• While I was diggin' on Matt Giraud during Hollywood week, I'm already over him. Note to Matt: smugness ain't pretty.
• I miss Ricky Braddy already. That kid could sing!
• Lil Rounds is gonna have to really blow it out to live up to that Fantasia/Mary J Blige connection. So far I'm just not seeing it.
• I have a huge crush on Chris Richardson...I mean Kris Allen. He's dreamy!
• I think Adam Lambert has a sick voice, and unlike some of the judges, I couldn't be happier to have a Broadway belter on the show.
• I think Anoop is totally likable and charming, but I can't help remembering he comes from a college a capella group, and that makes me nervous. Just saying.
• Michael Sarver does absolutely nothing for me. Ditto Jorge Nunez and Scott Macintyre.

Of course I'm leaving out about 10K other thoughts I've had, but this is all I can thing of right now. More, surely, to come.

Forecasting Idol: Which One (or Two) of the Top 13 Will Go Home First?

Well, I've been quiet during the first two months of American Idol, but I can't keep my opinions to myself any longer! (Click here to read I'M BACK -- FOR REAL THIS TIME).

To kick off my return to the world of Idol commentary, I thought I'd take a look at the Top 13 and try to predict which one (or, based on the fact that there may be a double elimination tonight, two) contestants will receive the distinction of being the first (and possibly second) to get sent packin'. Keep in mind I am writing this without knowing the performance order, the contestants' song choices, and, of course, how well (or badly) they will perform.

Here goes!

TOTALLY SAFE

Danny Gokey
Sure, controversy has brewed around this recent widow, but I think he's heard the message loud and clear -- steer clear of the dead wife talk, and stick to the singing. There's no doubt this guy has a killer voice, and as long as he lets the viewers focus on that, there's no way he won't be around for awhile.

Adam Lambert
Those somewhat shocking photos of his man-on-man tongue kissing might have meant doomsday for a lesser performer, but Adam's ridiculously good voice should continue earning him enough fans to overcome the homophobic naysayers that claim America can't have a gay Idol. Adam seems totally comfortable with who he is, which should help put viewers at ease, and allow them to be entertained by this fantastic vocalist.

Allison Irahata
While one performance does not an Idol make, Allison's great take on Heart's "Alone" has earned her enough goodwill (and a bit of frontrunner status), that even a stumble during Michael Jackson week won't be too troubling for the pink haired teenager.

Anoop Desai
In some ways the Wildcard contenders come into the Top 13 with the biggest advantage -- America has heard them sing twice. Anoop, particularly, will reap the benefits of this, as his infectious performance of "My Perogerative" reminded voters what they love about him, and that love is not likley to disipate any time soon.

MOSTLY SAFE

Scott Macintyre>
I'm still not sold on the vocal stylings of Idol's first blind contestant, but there's no doubt the guy is likable. He's got a free pass to at least the Top 10.

Kris Allen
I know Kris isn't the best singer this show has ever seen, but he's so darn cute! You best believe I'm not the only one who thinks so, and in a crowded field of 13, expect his cutie patootie-ness (and not bad voice) to stand out.

Lil Rounds
Perhaps I'm jaded by the top-notch R&B divas this show has produced in the past (J-Hud, Fantasia, Latoya London -- heck, even Trenyce!), but Lil just hasn't blown me away yet. That may change, but I wouldn't call her a sure-thing just yet.

Matt Giraud
His performance last week was MILES better than his initial semifinal audition, but I just can't get his wobbly version of Coldplay's latest single out of my mind. I think he'll make it through this week, but he'll have to string together some solid performances to really make a dent in the competition.

IN TROUBLE

Alexis Grace
Her week one semifinal performance was undoubtedly strong, but that was a long time ago -- will America remember how much they like this pixie-ish wailer? She's going to need a couple more strong performances if she wants to be more than a week one flash-in-the-pan.

Jorge Nunez
His strong voice and endearing tears helped him beat out Ju'not Joyner for a spot in the Top 13, but his style is so old-fashioned, I just can't picture him every getting to the front of the pack. One bad performance and this guy could be gone.

Michael Sarver
Easily the least inspired performer in the Top 13, this guys is, in my eyes, the least likely to crack the Top 10. How far can being an oil rigger really propel him?

Megan Corkrey
I love this girl's unique voice and winning smile, but I'm not so sure the rest of America does. As one of only five women she's likely to stand out, but she's going to have to start amassing fans quickly if she wants to last awhile.

Jasmine Sullivan
This year's "huh?!?" finalist would seem to be the easy pick to go home first, and if Season 3 is any indication, when Leah Labelle creapt into the Top 12 only to be eliminated a week later, we may not be seeing Jasmine for very long. Consider Carmen Rasmussen in Season 2, who was also a "huh?!?" choice -- she ended up cracking the Top 6. Which way will Jasmine fall?

AND...
So, there it is. While Megan and Jorge are on thin ice, I think it will ultimately be Michael Sarver (if one goes), or Michael and Jasmine Sullivan (if two get sent home).

Agree? Disagree? Sound off in the comments section below!